2026 Mortgage Delinquency Outlook: Where It's Rising Fastest, by State
Every state we cover is trending toward a higher serious-delinquency rate by the end of 2026, not a lower one. Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and North Dakota are rising fastest; Wisconsin is the only state holding flat. This is our own projection, built by extrapolating each state's trailing 24-month trend in CFPB-published mortgage performance data — see the methodology below before you treat any single number as a forecast rather than a directional read.
Why every state is trending up right now
The CFPB's National Mortgage Database tracks the share of mortgages 90 or more days delinquent, drawn from a nationally representative sample of closed-end, first-lien residential mortgages, and publishes it monthly at the national, state, metro, and county level. The national rate bottomed out in 2023–2024 and has been climbing since — from 0.7% a year ago to 0.8% most recently — and that climb shows up almost everywhere at the state level too, just at different speeds. Nowhere in our coverage set posted a meaningful decline over the past year.
Rising fastest: the five states to watch
These five have the steepest trailing-24-month trend line, meaning the extrapolation moves them the most by December 2026 — not necessarily the highest starting point, but the fastest-moving one.
| State | Current (90+ days) | A year ago | Projected, end of 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| Florida | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| Georgia | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| Texas | 1% | 0.8% | 1.2% |
| North Dakota | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1% |
Florida and Georgia both climbed roughly 0.3 points in a single year — a large move for a metric that usually shifts in tenths of a point — while Louisiana already carries the highest current rate in our coverage set and is still accelerating.
Full state-by-state ranking
Sorted by projected end-of-2026 rate, highest to lowest.
| State | Trend | Current | Projected 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | Rising fastest | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| Mississippi | Elevated and rising | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Florida | Rising fastest | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| Georgia | Rising fastest | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| South Carolina | Elevated and rising | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| West Virginia | Elevated and rising | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| Texas | Rising fastest | 1% | 1.2% |
| Illinois | Elevated and rising | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Indiana | Elevated and rising | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Ohio | Elevated and rising | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Oklahoma | Drifting up | 1% | 1.1% |
| Alabama | Elevated and rising | 0.9% | 1% |
| Delaware | Elevated and rising | 0.9% | 1% |
| District of Columbia | Flat to improving | 1% | 1% |
| Maryland | Drifting up | 0.9% | 1% |
| New Mexico | Elevated and rising | 0.9% | 1% |
| New York | Drifting up | 0.9% | 1% |
| North Carolina | Elevated and rising | 0.8% | 1% |
| North Dakota | Rising fastest | 0.7% | 1% |
| Pennsylvania | Drifting up | 0.9% | 1% |
| Rhode Island | Elevated and rising | 0.8% | 1% |
| Arkansas | Flat to improving | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Connecticut | Drifting up | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Iowa | Elevated and rising | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Kansas | Elevated and rising | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Kentucky | Drifting up | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Maine | Elevated and rising | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Montana | Elevated and rising | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Nevada | Elevated and rising | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| New Jersey | Drifting up | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Tennessee | Elevated and rising | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Arizona | Elevated and rising | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Colorado | Elevated and rising | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Hawaii | Drifting up | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Michigan | Elevated and rising | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Missouri | Elevated and rising | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Utah | Elevated and rising | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Vermont | Drifting up | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Virginia | Elevated and rising | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Minnesota | Elevated and rising | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Nebraska | Drifting up | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| South Dakota | Drifting up | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Wyoming | Drifting up | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Alaska | Flat to improving | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| California | Drifting up | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Idaho | Drifting up | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Massachusetts | Drifting up | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Oregon | Elevated and rising | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Washington | Elevated and rising | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| New Hampshire | Drifting up | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Wisconsin | Flat to improving | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Methodology
Source data: CFPB National Mortgage Database, "Mortgages 90 or more days delinquent," state level, monthly, most recent published month at time of writing: September 2025. Figures are unmodified CFPB numbers.
Projection model: for each state, we fit a simple linear regression to the trailing 24 months of that state's delinquency rate and extrapolate the resulting monthly slope forward to December 2026. States are grouped into four tiers by the annualized slope: Rising fastest (0.2+ points/year), Elevated and rising (0.1–0.2), Drifting up (just above flat), and Flat to improving (flat or negative slope).
What this is and isn't: a linear extrapolation of a real trend is a reasonable way to say "if the current direction holds, here's roughly where this lands" — it is not a macroeconomic forecast, it doesn't account for policy changes, rate moves, regional shocks, or seasonal effects, and a state with a short or noisy recent history can produce a misleading slope. Treat the tier and direction as more reliable than the specific decimal. We'll revisit this projection as new CFPB data is published.
Falling behind on your mortgage right now?
What to ask your servicer for, and whenQuestions & Answers
Is mortgage delinquency rising in 2026?
Yes, in every state we cover except Wisconsin, which is holding flat. This is our own trend projection built by extrapolating each state's trailing 24-month CFPB delinquency data, not a CFPB forecast.
— US Debt Compass Editorial Team
Which states have the worst mortgage delinquency outlook?
Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and North Dakota are projected to rise fastest by the end of 2026, based on the steepest trailing-24-month trend line in our data.
— US Debt Compass Editorial Team
Is the 2026 figure a real number or a prediction?
The 'current' and 'a year ago' figures are real, unmodified CFPB numbers. The 'projected 2026' figure is our own linear extrapolation of the trend — editorial analysis, not a CFPB data release or guarantee.
— US Debt Compass Editorial Team